Energy balance: calories, BMR, TDEE, and realistic targets
Your body is a continuous energy system: energy stored in food minus energy expended through metabolism and activity determines whether stores grow, shrink, or hold steady. The classic model assumes 3,500 kcal ≈ 0.45 kg (1 lb) of body fat — a useful shorthand for planning, though real-world weight change slows as body mass drops (smaller bodies need fewer calories).
Start with BMR — the energy you use at complete rest. Mifflin–St Jeor (1990) is a solid default from height, weight, age, and sex; Katch–McArdle improves accuracy when you know lean body mass (it tends to be more accurate for lean or athletic people). Multiply BMR by an Activity Factor (PAL) to get TDEE:
- Sedentary (1.2) — desk job, little exercise.
- Lightly active (1.375) — 1–3 light sessions/week.
- Moderately active (1.55) — 3–5 sessions/week.
- Very active (1.725) — 6–7 hard sessions/week.
- Athlete-level (1.9) — twice-daily or physical labor + training.
To lose weight, a sustained deficit of 500–750 kcal/day is a common target for ~0.5–0.75 kg/week early on — rapid cuts raise muscle-loss and rebound risk. To build muscle, a surplus of 250–500 kcal/day paired with resistance training limits unnecessary fat gain. Maintenance means matching TDEE closely and adjusting based on 2–4 weeks of trend data, not daily fluctuations.
NEAT (non-exercise movement — steps, posture, fidgeting) and TDEA (total daily energy expenditure via activity) explain why two people with identical BMR and exercise can differ by 300–600 kcal/day in real expenditure. Track steps and daily activity, not just workouts.